Closure of Hormuz Strait not function well strategically; Robert Kaufmann tells ILNA

Robert Kaufmann is a professor in the Earth and Environment Department at Boston University. His research interests range from land use strategies to oil markets to climate change, and he has extensive knowledge of environmental science and policy.

ILNA: What is the reason for Donald Trump's talk with Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud to interfere in Saudi Arabia's oil quota?

When Tramp was a presidential candidate, he always criticized former presidents of the country for allowing oil prices to rise. Now, in a great irony, Trump himself has raised the price of oil on world markets by announcing the withdrawal from JCPOA and re-imposing sanctions on Iran. But Trump doesn’t want to take the responsibility, so he wants to put this burden on the Saudi side. There is an interesting point here; When Trump attempted for presidency, he’d always said that if he succeeded to the head of the White House, he would do something in the interest of the United States and expects other world leaders to do likewise and work for the sake of their own people. Now we have the President of U.S, asking from Saudi Arabia to do something that may not be so good for Riyadh.

ILNA: What will be the result of the Trump oil strategies to exert pressure on Iran?

Trump thinks pressure can force Iran to negotiate again. I think Russia and Europe and China are not interested in re - negotiations. Therefore, Trump attempts to force Iran to take action in this regard. Many countries, including Canada and Europe, have learned a very valuable point; that it is impossible to ignore Trump's bullying.

Canada and Europe used to tolerate America's strange and frivolous requests, but now they realize that the more they do so, the more Trump becomes avaricious.  So now, the European Union and Canada are trying to stand against Trump. We must stop such actions. It is a contract, and if one clashes it, we have to do what’s necessary to stop that.

ILNA: What will be the regional and international consequences of Iran's threat to close the Strait of Hormuz?

In my opinion, Iran can have several reactions to the United States, one of which is to close the Strait of Hormuz, which leads to a high rise in the prices of oil and economic disruption. This is not the right solution, as many countries that don’t agree with Trump may be move to his side. In the event of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, many countries will be harmed, and it will ultimately end to U.S. benefits, which are not in the interest of Iran and does not help resolve the current tensions. If I were to replace the Iranian authorities, I would have restarted nuclear production, because in this case, Europe and Russia would remain on the Iranian side. If there is no agreement, then the limitations of that agreement are no longer meaningful. And this act would follow EU and Russia and China empathy, even if they don’t sympathize with that. In my opinion, the closure of Hormuz Strait from strategic point of view will not function very well.  This would ultimately be detrimental to the countries that were using the strait only for trading and were not very interested in Washington's policies. If Iran resumes its nuclear activities, the United States will ultimately be blamed for breaking the nuclear deal, but closing the Strait of Hormuz will not make anyone happy and will put Iran in a bad position. This is exactly what the United States is hoping for!

ILNA: What are the European and the Gulf States approach in the face of Trump’s oil strategies?

The Saudis and some Gulf countries have taken a very aggressive approach towards Iran. However, I can not say with certainty that they are completely American puppets. Of course, Saudi Arabia is a supporter of the United States. But my feeling is that Riyadh has some limitations in this regard. Perhaps Saudi Arabia will partly increase its production, but I do not think the production is so high that it will affect the oil markets.

Interestingly, Trump does not realize that OPEC is not controlling oil prices! The only thing that OPEC can do is to affect prices with changing its production capacity. Oil prices are determined in New York, London, Dubai, and Asia and in the stock markets.