Post-Crisis Kazakhstan may move deeper into a strategic partnership with Russia; Vaishali Krishna tells ILNA

What follows is Dr. Vaishali Krishna's exclusive note to ILNA about recent developments in Kazakhstan. Vaishali Krishna is the Assistant Professor at Centre for Russian and Central Asian Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi (India).

Following the worst ever violent unrest that rocked Kazakhstan for almost a week in its 30-year of independent existence, the country now appears to be coming back to normal. The law and order is restored in the region. The violence marred the largest Central Asian country after massive protests took place on January 2, 2022 in the oil-producing city of Zhanaozen, which soon spread to other cities, especially the former capital city of Almaty.  Although the immediate cause of protests was cited as the sudden hike in prices of Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG), the situation aggravated by the resentment against the current model of governance, abuse of political power, and growing social and economic inequalities that left no stone unturned to put the country into crisis amid turmoil and crackdowns, resulting in 164 people dead and nearly 10,000 arrested.  

Often described as the economic powerhouse of Central Asia, Kazakhstan has come a long way in three decades of its nationhood and has proved its stable democracy. It has a long history of remaining under Kremlin rule before becoming independent along with four other Central Asian Republics after the Soviet collapse in 1991. Sharing the longest border with Russia it has always enjoyed an important position in Central Asia due to its being a geo-strategically important entity in Eurasia. Its existence in a strategic region between Russia and China with extensive territory, immense natural resources, especially vast gas and oil reserves, and economic growth attract major global and regional powers to find their niche. But for the last few years, it has also been facing ethnic, political, and other challenges despite systematic reforms focusing on key areas.

The first President Nursultan Nazarbayev ruled Kazakhstan almost until 2019 when he handed over power to his handpicked successor Kassym-jomart Tokayev. Since then, Tokayev has been ruling with the support of Nazarbayev, now experts believe, it appears to be coming to an end as normalcy returns in the crisis-ridden country. Amid the chaos of violent protests, in the nation-wide address on January 7, 2022, President Tokayev described the deadly violence as an attempted coup d’etat from within coordinated by what he called “terrorists and thugs” backed by hostile foreign forces, though he did not name any country in particular. But the whole crisis in Kazakhstan is also indicative of the scale of the violence and the dangers it posed to the current regime’s continuity.

But one country that Kazakh government relied on for its actions to get rid of the domestic political crisis and help stabilize the situation is Russia whose role can be described more as psychological than political. The two sides have not only common borders but have also the closest ties since Soviet days, in addition to Kazakhstan being militarily important for Moscow. Security of the Central Asian region, in particular Kazakhstan, has always remained a matter of serious concern for Russia as the Russian-Kazakh border is said be “not well protected”. Hence, unrest in Kazakhstan could have posed a security threat to Russia itself. The quick Russian response to the situation by deploying troops from the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) proves the intensity of Russian interests in crushing the violent protests so as to make sure that the neighboring region remains free from internal and external threats. But the issue of Russian intervention in the Kazakh crisis has invited varied interpretations considering that it is for the first time that the CSTO came to intervene in domestic matters of any of its member countries. However, as the CSTO troops began withdrawing from Kazakhstan on January 13, the trust level between Kazakhstan and Russia is likely to go up.

Today the entire world is watching the episode closely because Kazakhstan is an energy-rich country and the world is craving for energy resources so any turmoil will feel the ripples. The U.S. and NATO are watching developments in Kazakhstan with both interest and concern. Another interesting spectator is China which is waiting in the wings to grab its opportunity to expand its geopolitics through investment in infrastructure projects besides being inquisitive of Russia and its presence in the region. India, on the other hand, has a good relationship with Kazakhstan in terms of cultural linkages as well as trade. India will always look forward to stable and peaceful conditions in its extended neighborhood as any instability will hamper its “Connect Central Asia” policy, no less important is Kazakhstan’s supplies of uranium for India’s nuclear energy program. Peace and security in Kazakhstan remain extremely crucial for the continuance of India’s strategic relations with Central Asia, particularly in the context of the post-Taliban scenario in Afghanistan.

Then what Kazakhstan needs to do now is to neutralize the condition in which not only its domestic policy but also its multi-vector foreign policy remain intact. Reforms in the country need to be carried out carefully in order to maintain the lucrative value of Kazakhstan as a regional leader so as to make it further attractive to foreign investments. Though branding of protesters as “terrorists and bandits” has created a divide between the government and the people, the way it is defined and interpreted is all a matter of perception. The time can heal the situation and can clear the intentions. Even Russia’s immediate intention in Kazakhstan has been the containment of political instability at its southern border. Therefore, protection of the region from disruption has probably been the most important agenda to the Kremlin. On the other hand, Kazakhstan has both strategic and political reasons to have an intense and good relationship with Russia, though handling the security threat situation and overcoming the crisis with the Russian help is indicative that Kazakhstan may move deeper into a strategic partnership with Russia.