These will be hard times for Olaf Scholz; Ralph Schoellhammer tells ILNA

Ralph Schoellhammer, MA is currently a faculty member in the International Relations & Business and Management Department at Webster Vienna Private University. He is also an affiliated researcher with the Danube University Krems. Additionally, Ralph works as a consultant for the Austrian Federal Chancellery’s Division III: Civil Service and Administrative Innovation that deals with the reforming and modernizing the Austrian public service. Below is ILNA's interview with this analyst and researcher about the future of the German government.

ILNA: The new government of Germany will be the first triple party coalition government in this country’s history. Despite the differences in views and opinions between these parties, how do you predict the future performance of this new coalition government?

It is primarily a left-leaning government, despite the participation of the Free Democrats – this party is conservative in its fiscal outlook but very liberal in social issues. They have, however, won many votes from people who hoped that the Free Democrats would become the new conservative party in Germany, particularly after the disappointment over the CDU/CSU under the leadership of Angela Merkel. So while the parties are very much aligned on most issues, future polls could show that conservative voters start to break away from the FDP, forcing them to push for more conservative policies and thereby creating tensions with the Social Democrats and the Greens.

ILNA:  Since the cabinet ministers must be chosen from three different political parties, how do you evaluate these selections?

There are no great surprises in the selection of the ministers, although it is a little disappointing that one of the Green’s most capable and experienced politicians, Cem Özdemir was only getting the Ministry of Agriculture. He would have been a very interesting choice for the office of foreign minister. The Green Politician Robert Habeck is leading a “Super-Ministry” of Economics and Climate Change, while the Free Democrat Christian Lindner will be responsible for finances. This could become a field of tensions, because the Green Party wants more spending, while the Free Democrats favor a balanced budget. I would, however, not overestimate Mr. Lindner’s willingness to resist budget deficits.

ILNA: Iran and Germany’s approach towards this country is one of the points mentioned in the coalition government agreement document. In your opinion, what will Germany’s approach towards this country and in particular its nuclear deal and JCPOA be?

The German foreign policy will be guided by conflict avoidance despite the occasional rhetoric demanding respect for human rights etc. I believe that the chances for a new nuclear deal have not diminished, because Europeans always had a favorable view of the JCPOA.

ILNA: The new German foreign minister, is the first woman and the first politician from the green party that has taken this role. In your view, how will the great importance of climate conditions for the new foreign minister affect conventional diplomatic matters?

This is a very tricky question. Climate policy in Germany, especially the turn away from nuclear energy, has made the country dependent on energy imports from Russia (natural gas) and nuclear energy (France). This of course weakens Germany’s bargaining position with energy-exporting countries. China, on the other hand, will use the carrot of cooperation on climate change to extract German silence on human rights violations, particularly against its Muslim minority in Xinjiang. I believe that the climate issue will weaken Germany as an international power because it forecloses traditional tools of foreign policy. If you depend on Russia for energy, there is not much Germany can do to change the behavior of Moscow, for example.

ILNA: After the 16 years of Angela Merkel’s legacy, how do you evaluate Olaf Scholz's future as the new chancellor of Germany?

Olaf Scholz is not in a very powerful position. 25% for his party in the last elections was a plus of 5% and made the SPD the strongest party in parliament, but historically this is still far from Gerhard Schröder, the last SPD Chancellor who won 34% in his worst election year in 2005. Scholz is not as charismatic as Schröder was and is not as undisputed as the party leader in his party as Angela Merkel was in the CDU. These will be hard times for him, especially with the overambitious Green Party and their far-reaching climate ideas.

ILNA: According to the coalition agreement document, 2% of Germany’s GDP will be allocated to military and weaponry matters. A point that has always been emphasized by NATO. Taking these matters into consideration, how do you assess the future relations between NATO and Germany?

I believe the 2% when I see it. For now, I expect Germany to continue free-riding under US protection.

Interview by: Ardavan Malekpour

Edited by: Azadeh Keshvardoust