European countries have their own concerns in relation with JCPOA; Birmingham University Professor tells ILNA

Scott Lucas is Professor of International Politics since 2014. He is a staff member of the University of Birmingham since 1989 and a Professor of American Studies since 1997.

He began his career as a specialist in US and British foreign policy, but his research interests now also cover current international affairs -especially North Africa, the Middle East, and Iran- New Media, and Intelligence Services.

A professional journalist since 1979, Professor Lucas is the founder and editor of EA WorldView, a leading website in daily news and analysis of Iran, Turkey, Syria, and the wider Middle East, as well as US foreign policy.

ILNA: We are approaching to the May 12^th. Trump has threatened that if European countries don’t retrospect JCPOA, his country would withdraw from this deal. Although JCPOA is an agreement about Iran nuclear issue, the European countries have increased their pressure on the matter of Tehran regional activities and defensive missile program. Do you think these pressures are applying in order to satisfy U.S President?

I think European countries are acting to maintain the JCPOA, balancing between the Trump Administration's threat of withdrawal and Iran's desire to maintain the agreement. That is why European signatories to the JCPOA- the UK, France, and Germany as well as the European Union- are proposing parallel negotiations on Iran's ballistic missile program.

ILNA: Do you think these pressures have satisfied Donald Trump so that he remains in JCPOA?

I can not predict what Donald Trump will do on May 12th, when he must decide on renewing the waiver of Congressional sanctions. Many in the Administration- notably Defense Secretary James Mattis- favor staying in the JCPOA, despite the appointment of John Bolton as National Security Advisor and the nomination of Mike Pompeo as Secretary of State. But Trump is impulsive, and I do not know who might influence him at the last minute.

ILNA: Many believe that John Bolton's election as national security assistant and Mike Pompeo as secretary of state will mean taking more radical policies from the White House against Iran and possibly withdrawing from the nuclear deal. Do you think these changes have been made in order to withdraw from the agreement?

The appointments of John Bolton and Mike Pompeo are more to do with Trump surrounding himself with loyalists and those he admires from watching TV, rather than with the specifics of Iran policy.

ILNA: While Trump said in his Presidential campaign that the United States would definitely end this deal, we see a year and a half since his arrival at the White House, but he has not yet done that. What causes Trump to stop making this action?

Up to this point, some influential White House advisors and even some Republican legislators have pointed to the costs of withdrawal. They note that Iran will quickly resume enrichment of 20% uranium, and pursue research and development of new centrifuges. They also note that withdrawal could escalate confrontation over regional issues, such as the Syrian conflict and tensions between Hezbollah and Israel. 

These advisors have also supported the alternative policy of maintaining existing US sanctions on Iran without imposing the wider Congressional santions.

ILNA: Many believe that Trump does not intend to withdraw from the nuclear deal, but wants to reduce the cost by creating a negative psychological environment and advertising that will prevent foreign investment in Iran which would cause Iran's lack of interest in the nuclear deal. How much do you agree with this analysis?

The US is already pursuing a policy of maintaining sanctions which, directly or indirectly, limit the trade and investment links between foreign companies and Iran.

ILNA: If United States leaves JCPOA, How do you think of Iran would response to this issue? Does Iran contemplate a scenario of JCPOA without U.S. or does Iran revert to the conditions before the nuclear deal?

If we take Iranian officials at their word- and I do- Tehran will resume enrichment of 20% uranium and research and development of centrifuges. However, Iran faces the wider issue of how to deal with serious economic problems that will be affected by further sanctions. This will require a policy of establishing economic links with other countries, which cannot be satisfied just by speaking of a "response" to US action.

ILNA: How do you evaluate the Europe will react if U.S withdraw from the agreement? Will they be willing to engage in economic cooperation with Iran, or will they restrict their economic relations and political cooperation in the face of economic sanctions by the United States?

I think European states and the European Union will weigh their positions very carefully. I do not expect they will announce immediate action, either to follow the US or to restore links with Iran.

ILNA: If Washington withdraws from JCPOA, do you think it will affect on meeting with Pyongyang and make North Korea distrustful?

I think the North Korean approach to its nuclear issue is being determined by other factors, such as its relations with South Korea and with regional countries, rather than any attention to the JCPOA.

ILNA: If America withdraws from the nuclear deal, should we see more clashes between Iran and the United States in the Middle East and tensions in Western Asia?

I think that will be up to Iran's officials, including their approach to Afghanistan, Syria, Yemen, and Lebanon as well as their regional policies about Saudi Arabia and Israel.