ICG urges US Congress not to fall into Trump's trap

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International Crisis Group (ICG), a non-governmental organization working to prevent conflicts worldwide, in a statement urged US Congress not to fall into President Trump's trap.

In its recent statement, ICG slammed Trump's act to decertify Iran's compliance with nuclear deal, saying Iran and other signatories are eager to keep the deal notwithstanding US position.

'U.S. President Donald J. Trump’s 13 October decision not to certify Iran’s compliance with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JC POA) based on his assessment that the agreement's costs outweigh its benefits will not, in and of itself, abrogate the deal. But it seriously, unnecessarily and recklessly undermines it. At best, it injects a level of uncertainty and unpredictability in a region that already has a surfeit of both. At worst, it is the opening salvo in a potential tit-for-tat that ultimately could unravel the deal, resuscitate the specter of military confrontation and significantly compromise any prospect of a diplomatic settlement of the far more acute and perilous North Korean nuclear crisis,' the statement reads.

'The accord’s fate now primarily rests on the actions of others: Iran, which could wisely display patience and avoid provocative counter-measures; Europe, which is beholden to the deal and would need to stand up to U.S. pressure; and the U.S. Congress, which ought to avoid the trap laid out in plain sight by the president and refuse to restore sanctions on Iran in violation of the deal or unilaterally alter the terms of the multilateral accord in the illusory hope that they can compel Tehran to renegotiate it.'

'That Iran has been in compliance with its JCPOA obligations is beyond dispute. This repeatedly has been verified by the impartial UN nuclear agency entrusted with monitoring Iran's actions with the most rigorous inspection regime ever negotiated; by all the JCPOA’s signatories; indeed, by the U.S. itself. Unable to argue non-compliance when its own state department and defense and intelligence community have found otherwise, the president has opted for another path made possible by congressional legislation: refusing to certify the JCPOA on the grounds that the sanctions suspension is not proportionate to Iran's nuclear steps. For the White House, this has all the makings of a win-win-win scenario: it signals opposition to the deal while removing the burden of periodically certifying it; creates doubt as to its survival without taking immediate responsibility for torpedoing it; and shifts that burden to Congress, which has until 14 December to decide whether to restore, through an expedited process by a simple majority, the sanctions waived under the JCPOA.'

” Such dramatic Congressional action seems unlikely. The administration and key lawmakers are disinclined to take this step, which would be tantamount to a unilateral U.S. exit from the deal – and thus a recipe for US isolation and condemnation by its allies.'

'Worse, President Trump warned that he would walk away from the deal if Congress were not to pass such legislation, or if other JCPOA signatories did not agree to 'fix' the deal's alleged flaws (notably that some of its provisions expire within 10, 15, 20, or 25 years, that Iran can conduct limited research and development, that the International Atomic Energy Agency does not have unhindered access to Iran’s military facilities, and that Iran furthers its missile program). In other words, Trump's message to U.S. partners is: violate the deal with me, or I'll violate it alone.'

'The idea of a renegotiation is a chimera, and dangerous to boot. Iran's leaders have made it plain they will not renegotiate a just-concluded deal under pressure from a co-signatory that is threatening to walk away and whose compliance with the agreement's provisions they already doubt. Besides, any renegotiation inevitably would include reciprocal demands from Tehran that, at this point, it seems utterly implausible the U.S. would entertain.'

'Risks go beyond the JCPOA’s survival. As Iran's anger at U.S. actions and doubts regarding its intentions grow, and as growing uncertainty over possible U.S. sanctions risk scaring away potential foreign investors, it might eschew a direct response on the nuclear front. But its restraint could be tested on non-nuclear matters: some of its senior military officials already have threatened to directly or indirectly target U.S forces and assets in the Middle East in retaliation for sanctions aimed at Iran’s Revolution Guard Corps, which the White House has announced would be a primary target of its policy.'

'Which brings us to the posture of other P5+1 members in general, and Europe in particular. So far, they essentially have spoken in one voice, including up until the eve of Trump's decision, asserting that they will stick to the JCPOA notwithstanding Washington's views.'

'Now that President Trump has announced his decision, European governments should reiterate their position and communicate publicly and to the U.S. that they will neither renegotiate the deal nor comply with unwarranted unilateral U.S. sanctions on Iran and will continue to abide by their own JCPOA obligations. The EU could go the extra step and revive its “Blocking Regulations”, prohibiting compliance with U.S. extraterritorial sanctions, thereby making clear that they will not give effect to U.S. judgments and administrative determinations pursuant to such sanctions and that companies will be reimbursed for damages incurred for alleged sanctions violations.'

'Finally, and crucially, the U.S. Congress. The rashest of actions for now also appears the least likely: entirely snapping back the suspended nuclear sanctions. But as seen, there is danger in the so-called “third way”: congressional action that does not immediately re-impose all sanctions but penalises Iran and threatens to restore some in response either to Iranian actions not covered by the JCPOA or its refusal to modify the accord.'

US President Donald Trump on Friday took a new strategy toward Iran and decertified Tehran's commitment with the 2015 landmark nuclear deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

Trump's approach has been criticized by many countries, international bodies, political communities and world media.

'Iran nuclear deal is not a bilateral accord and it belongs to no country and no country is able to terminate it,' High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Federica Mogherini said minutes after Trump's speech on Friday.

Meanwhile, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani in a televised message shortly after Trump's speech said his remarks were 'nothing but a handful of baseless and empty allegations against the Iranian nation.'

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